Rival Tablets Could Trim iPad Sales in European Market

Apple's iPad absolutely dominates the tablet scene in the U.S., and few analysts expect that to change anytime soon. But that may not be the case in Europe.

According to a new report from Forrester Research, Apple's rivals may fare better in Europe -- with some caveats. So says Sarah Rotman Epps, author of a Forrester report released Tuesday on the European tablet market.

"With the recent launch (and huge marketing push) of the Acer Iconia Tab and Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 in multiple European countries, one might think that things were looking up for Android tablets in Europe -- but that's not the case," Epps wrote in a blog post.

Small Window of Opportunity

The good news is that Europe is and will remain a huge market for tablets. Forrester predicts that EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) will account for 14.5 million, or 30 percent, of worldwide consumer tablet sales in 2011. Three times the number of Europeans who have tablets today say they are interested in buying one in the future.

Apple also has a stronghold in the United Kingdom, but beyond the shores of the U.S. ally Forrester said tablet makers could find opportunities to compete against the iPad maker. It offered some stats to help paint the picture of Apple and its tablet competition in Europe. Apple has 52 Stores in Europe, but 30 of them are in the U.K. That compares to 238 Apple stores in the U.S.

"Apple's brand and channel presence is not uniformly strong in Europe. Mac ownership, for example, is lower in every EU-7 country than it is in the U.S.," Rotman said. "But no competitor has met Apple's challenge. Despite Apple's potential vulnerability, we estimate that Apple still has 70 percent market share for tablet sell-through to consumers in Europe."

Focus on Price

She was quick to point out that sell-through is different from shipments. Forrester interviews with European retailers confirmed that non-iPad tablets are sitting in the retail channel. In other words, manufacturers are shipping more tablets than consumers are buying. As she sees it, iPad competitors' prices are too high, and no competitor has matched Apple on content or channel strategy. What does this mean?

"Low-cost tablets from ODMs like Huawei and ZTE will put downward pricing pressure on the market, but consumers need more than a lower price tag to buy. Sony, which has a strong brand and channel presence in Europe but tends to price on the high end, may have some success with its upcoming Sony S1 tablet," Rotman said. "But truly radical disruption requires (creating a new experience), as we expect Amazon to do in the U.S. Without a radical Amazon-like disruptor, Europeans are likely to buy an iPad -- or wait for something truly different to come along."

Apple's Tablet World

Michael Gartenberg, an analyst at Gartner, said competing with Apple's iPad anywhere in the world boils down to this fundamental question: Why should consumers should buy a competing tablet as opposed to an iPad, which is rapidly becoming the standard for tablets in terms of price, features and applications?

"Apple is still dominating by a very large margin," Gartenberg said. "Certainly a lot of these competitive products are great products in and of themselves in a world where Apple doesn't exist. But unfortunately for them, Apple is around."

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Nvidia CEO: Android tablets could outsell iPad in 3 years

Android tablets could outsell Apple's iPad in less than three years, says Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang, according to Reuters.

Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang

(Credit: Nvidia)

Speaking at the Reuters Technology Summit in New York on Monday, the outspoken CEO noted that it took Android smartphones less than three years to outpace the iPhone.

"The Android phone took only two and a half years to achieve the momentum that we're talking about," Huang said at the summit. "I would expect the same thing on Honeycomb tablets."

With Nvidia supplying the Tegra 2 processor that powers many Android tablets, Huang has been both a cheerleader and sometime critic of Google's mobile OS and the devices that it powers.

To outpace Apple's popular iPad--the company said in March that it had sold 15 million iPads to that point, and accounted for 90 percent of the tablet market--the Android ecosystem will need to see improved tablet models and more mobile apps. Huang believes that will happen as the Honeycomb version of Android catches on and developers create more games and other apps to take advantage of the latest version of Android.

There also need to be improvements in Android tablets' retail presence, Huang told CNET blogger Brooke Crothers last week. "It's a point of sales problem. It's an expertise at retail problem. It's a marketing problem to consumers. It is a price point problem," Huang said.

Related links
‧ IDC: 46 million media tablets by 2014
‧ Android.next: Honeycomb 3.1 now, Ice Cream Sandwich later
‧ Yes, tablets are hurting PC sales...kind of
‧ Chromebook, Netbook, iPad: Which would you rather spend $500 on?

Huang admits that the first round of Android tablets were hampered by technical issues and a lack of marketing, prompting consumers to complain about prices and performance. He's especially pointed out the limitations of the Android versions prior to Honeycomb as they were designed for phones rather than tablets.

"You can't just do another product," Huang told CNET in an interview last November. "Look at the Samsung Galaxy Tab. It's a tablet that uses a phone operating system on a large display. A tablet is not a large phone."

However, his opinion of the second wave of tablets has been much more upbeat--he sees the newer devices as more affordable, more available, and more diverse. He's also more optimistic about Android with the release of Honeycomb, the first version optimized specifically for tablets.

Huang's upbeat expectation for Android tablets overtaking iPads has been echoed by Michael Dell. The CEO and founder of PC maker Dell, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal last month, used the same smartphone reference point. "If you look at 18 months ago, Android phones were like, 'What is that?' And now there are more Android phones than iPhones," Dell said.

As with any new product, initial kinks always need to be worked out and "the first versions tend to be a bit clumsy to roll out," Huang said, according to Reuters. That statement holds true even for Honeycomb 3.0, which he admits has certain shortcomings that everyone was aware of. But he seems happy so far with the follow-up version of Honeycomb 3.1, which he dubbed "delightful."

Nvidia is also ready to push the envelope of Android tablets with the upcoming release of its Kal-El mobile processor. Christened with Superman's birth name, the new chip will offer a quad-core processor and higher-resolution graphics, promising five times the performance of Nvidia's current Tegra 2 chip.

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HP's TouchPad Could Emerge as Viable IPad Competitor

HP's TouchPad could emerge as a viable competitor to Apple's iPad tablet in a burgeoning market filled with disappointing competitors, industry analysts said this week.

The TouchPad, which is due for release in June, needs to be competitively priced and different on features from devices that include a slew of Android tablets and Research in Motion's PlayBook, analysts said.

"Most iPad competitors on the Android platform have had zero differentiation so far and have been unable to demarcate from each other. Other competing platforms such as RIM's Playbooks have received lukewarm-to-poor feedback from consumers as they lack critical functions," said David Daoud, research director at IDC.

Tablet shipments totaled 6 million units in this year's first quarter, of which Apple's iPad had a 74 percent market share, Canalys Research said in a study last month. The rest of the market share was taken by competitors such as Samsung's Galaxy Tab, which runs Android.

The TouchPad was originally announced in February and is based on the webOS mobile platform, which HP obtained when it acquired Palm for $1.2 billion last year. The TouchPad is critical to HP's long-term strategy of putting webOS on products ranging from PCs to smartphones so files and content can be shared easily between devices.

"For HP, the TouchPad is a risk-reward play -- it's a major investment in a non-Windows device, said Sarah Rotman Epps, a senior analyst of consumer product strategy at Forrester Research

"Success sets HP up to be a competitor with Apple -- the only PC manufacturer to also own its own operating system," Epps said.

The TouchPad could also soften the impact of lagging PC sales, analysts said. HP this week reported that revenue for the company's Personal Systems Group (PSG), which is responsible for PCs, declined 5 percent year-over-over, fueled by a 23 percent decline in consumer client revenue.

In the wake of disappointing PC sales, HP's primary competitors Dell and Acer have dialed up their tablet strategies. Dell plans many new tablets in the next 10 to 20 months in the Asia-Pacific region, a company executive said on a conference call on Thursday. Acer recently announced its first tablets under the Iconia brand with the Android and Windows 7 operating systems.

If the TouchPad were to fail, it could be embarrassing for HP, but not crippling, analysts said. HP is still the world's largest PC manufacturer, and the company can take lessons back to retool the device and OS strategy.

The product's failure would leave a cloud hanging over the company's webOS strategy, said Charles King , principal analyst at Pund-IT.

"If it fails, the common assumption will be that it's simply another in a line of tablets that came up against Apple and was knocked into the gutter," King said.

The TouchPad will have a 9.7-inch screen, a dual-core 1.2GHz Snapdragon processor and 16GB or 32GB of storage. A Wi-Fi version will be available initially, with 3G and 4G versions coming later. The tablet has been listed on multiple websites, including Amazon, Best Buy and Staples, but pricing is not yet available.

When it introduced the TouchPad in February, HP highlighted some features that could give the tablet an edge over its rivals. The device runs Adobe Flash, and HP's Touchstone technology allows for wireless communication between webOS-based mobile devices. The company also highlighted Synergy, a software suite that integrates e-mail and information from online sources such as Twitter and Facebook in a single application.

But analysts have said that HP faces challenges because of limited support from application developers. It could also take time for users to get used to a device based on a new OS, said Ezra Gottheil, senior analyst at Technology Business Research.

"I believe webOS will be a winner for HP, but it may start slow in the consumer market, where much of the mindshare is occupied by Apple and Android," Gottheil said.

The tablet wars remind Gottheil of the PC wars in the early 1980s, when IBM, Apple, Commodore and Atari competed on price and features in a bid to sell more PCs.

"I started in the PC industry in 1980, and the tablet industry is at approximately the same point as PCs were then. Apple had the largest market share, and HP was a minor player. I don't think Apple will make the mistakes in tablets that it did in PCs, but HP is definitely in it for the long haul," Gottheil said.

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iPad 2 Screen Protector Could Disguise Lesser Tablets

 

I have never seen the point of screen protectors on glass screens: they add bubbles, they never go on straight and they are usually more prone to scratching than the glass they are supposed to protect. Still, if I was in the market for an iPad screen protector, then I might take a look at the Moshi iVisor AG.

Unlike the usual plastic film kits, the iVisor actually looks like the front of an iPad, with a black or white bezel to match your model. It has cut-outs for camera and home button, and supposedly goes on bubble-free, every time. In this respect it looks more like a slightly floppy, thickish cover than a sticky film, and this is confirmed by its ability to be reused after a bit of cleaning.

I think Moshi has missed an opportunity here. Instead of making the white version iPad 2-only, it should make it for the iPad 1, too. That way we could upgrade our ugly, fat slow and bloated old iPads to look like the sleek, fast and supermodel-hot new iPad 2. Hell, you could probably even take that Motorola Xoom that your idiot boyfriend/girlfriend bought you as a gift and cover up your shame.

The iVisor will cost you $30, which is $9 less than Apple’s Smart Cover. Both seem to be pretty good options for protecting your iPad’s screen with minimal thickness-encroachment.

iVisor AG for iPad 2 White [Moshi]

See Also:

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Analyst: iPad Shipments Could Hit 45 Million In 2011

Asian components suppliers say Apple could ship between 40 and 45 million iPads in 2011—as much as 15 million more than generally forecast by analysts, Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White said Thursday.

White told Apple Insider that he had previously heard such bullish figures from Asian sources last year. But "at the time, this number was difficult for many investors and some in the media to get their head around."

Ticonderoga Securities had previously projected 2011 global unit shipments for the iPad and iPad 2 in the neighborhood of 31 million while Needham & Company has set the number at 30 million and RBC Capital Markets puts it at 28 million.

Industry research firm IDC is currently forecasting total worldwide media tablet shipments of 50.4 million for 2011 including "more than 30 million unit shipments of the iPad," said media tablet analyst Susan Kevorkian.

IDC's total media tablet figure includes devices running non-iOS operating systems like Google's Android, Hewlett-Packard's WebOS and Research in Motion's BlackBerry Tablet OS—though such products have largely been eclipsed by the iPad to date or else aren't set to be released until later in the year.

IDC forecasts global media tablet shipments of 70.8 million units in 2012.

White's account of his talks with components suppliers in Taiwan and China punctuated a whirlwind of media tablet fanfare, leaks and rumors over the past several days—not all of it iPad-centric.

Earlier this week, IDC and Gartner both attributed a first-quarter year-over-year decline in worldwide PC shipments in part to the rise of media tablets as competition for consumers' dollars.

Meanwhile, a leaked version of the WebOS 3.0 SDK offered a sneak peek at the long-awaited first-generation TouchPad tablet which HP will reportedly release in the summer. RIM's first tablet, the BlackBerry PlayBook, will go on sale next week and PCMag.com has a review of the device ahead of the launch.

Intel's media tablet efforts were also in the news Thursday. The chip giant this week began shipping its new Atom-based "Oak Trail" hardware platform for tablets and netbooks with support for the Android 3.0 Honeycomb operating system.

Now comes a report from DigiTimes that Intel and Google will announce a joint Android 3.0 tablet initiative called "PRC Plus" in the third quarter of 2011 "after nearly half a year of negotiations," according to unnamed sources at notebook manufacturers.

Additionally, Intel will begin offering tablet makers a $10 subsidy for each Intel-based tablet they make, according to the unconfirmed DigiTimes report.

Intel has struggled to date to position its x86-based chips against the ARM-based chips that makers of smartphones and media tablets have almost exclusively used in products currently on the market.

For the top stories in tech, follow us on Twitter at @PCMag.

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